摘要
以2006—2015年联合国贸易数据库整理的数据为基础,结合中国与东盟十国的木质林产品贸易状况,利用扩展后的引力模型,分析木质林产品贸易的影响因素,测算其贸易潜力。结果表明:中国与东盟木质林产品贸易的进出口总额大体上呈现逐年递增的态势;国内生产总值、人口、森林资源禀赋差异、亚太经济合作组织等因素对中国与东盟木质林产品贸易具有正相关作用,而距离、全球金融危机等因素具有负相关作用;中国和东盟各个国家的木质林产品贸易属于"贸易开拓型",双边木质林产品还有可开发的贸易潜力空间;双边可以发挥有利因素,促进双边木质林产品贸易向更远发展。
⑴Background——ASEAN is China's important partner in trade of wooden forest products.There are 3countries from ASEAN accounting for the top five position of China's importing countries in wooden forest products'trade.Association of Southeast Asian Nations is called for short as ASEAN,which has a close connection with China geographically and has a more intimate relation with China in trade because of its status as important countries along the Belt and Road.In 2010,China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA)was established with years of effort by both China and ASEAN,which made bilateral trade close and greatly potential.In 2015,the volume of import and export of China's wooden forest products towards ASEAN reached 11.841 billion dollars,accounting for 11.77%of the total foreign trade volume of China's wooden forest products.Studying the trade of wooden forest products between China and ASEAN not only has significant guiding meaning to sustainable and sound development of bilateral trade of wooden forest products,but also has great promoting significance to carry out the economic initiative about the Belt and Road.⑵Methods——According to the data sorted out from the UN comtrade during 2006 to 2015,the gravity model was used to analyze its influencing factors in terms of the wooden forest products'trade conditions between China and ten ASEAN members,and to measure the trade potential of wooden forest products of China and ASEAN countries.⑶Results——The results indicated that China's total export-import volume of wooden forest products towards ASEAN showed a general increasing trend year by year.Factors,such as GDP,population,diversity of forest resources,APEC,conjoint boundaries,showed a positive function between China and ASEAN's wooden forest product trade.However,factors,like distance and global financial crisis embodied a negative function.Wooden forest products'trade between China and 8 countries among ASEAN has a trait of potential pioneer,which makes potential trade space of bilateral wooden forest products more exploitable.The two can make full use of favorable factors to promote further development of bilateral wooden forest products.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——We can draw a conclusion that the two's total volume of trade increases progressively year by year via analyzing the trade of wooden forest products between China and ASEAN from 2006 to 2015.Since the financial crisis in 2008,the volume of wooden forest products'trade between China and ten ASEAN members has shown a swift growth trend year by year,which embodies the bilateral trade has a considerable prospect.According to the analyzing result of gravity model,such factors as GDP,population,APEC,conjoint boundaries are beneficial to the trade of wooden forest products,while distance and the global financial crisis go against the trade.Wooden forest products'trade between China and 8 countries among ASEAN has a trait of potential pioneer.Wooden forest products'trade between China and these countries has great potential to be developed.Ten ASEAN members are in the tropical climate zone,which provides rich forest resources.What's more,these members have geographic advantages with China.With the development of the Belt and Road,the economy of ASEAN has great vitality and capacity.The two's trade connection of wooden forest products should be enhanced.The two's advantages should be given full play and the cooperative consultation mechanism should be built to facilitate a deeper development of wooden forest products'trade between China and ASEAN.
出处
《林业经济问题》
北大核心
2017年第6期26-31,共6页
Issues of Forestry Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(13BJY032)
关键词
中国—东盟
木质林产品
引力模型
影响因素
贸易潜力
China-ASEAN
woody forest products
gravity model
influence factors
potential of trade
