摘要
文章以辽宁省鞍山市辽河流域为例,基于水文干旱与气象干旱两大变量,采用马儿科夫链模型对研究区二维变量(干旱与湿润)状态进行频率、重现期和历史演变情况进行分析,以此结合研究区水文气象干旱指数,分别从干旱灾害形成、演变和持续三个层面,对该流域干旱灾害进行研究分析。在此基础上,对鞍山市辽河流域未来6个月内非水文干旱向水文干旱过渡概率进行预测分析。
Based on the Liaohe river basin of Anshan City in Liaoning Province,in accordance with two variates of hydrological draught and meteorological draught,this paper adopted the Markov chain model to analyze the frequency,return period and historical evolution about two-dimensional variates state（ draught and wet） of the studied area,based on this,combined with the hydrometeorology draught indicators of researched area,and researched the draught disaster of this river basin separately from three respects of draught disaster formation,development and lasting. Based on this,the probability was forecasted and analyzed for transition from non-hydrological draught to hydrological draught of the Liaohe river basin along Anshan City within future six months.
出处
《黑龙江水利科技》
2017年第8期20-23,共4页
Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology
关键词
马尔科夫链模型
鞍山市
辽河流域
水文气象干旱
Markov chain model
Anshan City
Liaohe river basin
hydrometeorology
draught
