摘要
运用空间联立方程模型考察了人口集聚、工业集聚、经济集聚与雾霾污染的相互作用机制。结果显示:雾霾污染存在显著的空间溢出效应;工业集聚和雾霾污染呈正相关关系,人口集聚、经济集聚和雾霾污染之间呈负相关关系;我国经济集聚和雾霾污染之间已进入倒"U"型曲线的下降阶段;雾霾污染会对当地的经济产生挤出效应,从而使周边地区从中受益。为了考察城镇化率的差异对集聚和雾霾污染作用机制的影响,采用门槛模型对此进行了研究,结果显示:随着城镇化率的提高,工业集聚和雾霾污染之间呈倒"U"型关系,当城镇化率大于68.60%时,工业集聚和雾霾污染之间呈负相关关系;随着城镇化率的提高,经济集聚和雾霾污染之间的负相关关系越来越显著。
The interaction mechanism of population agglomeration, industrial agglomeration, economic agglomeration and haze pollution was investigated by using the spatial simultaneous equation model. The results show that： Firstly, haze pollution has a significant spatial spillover effect. Secondly, there was a positive correlation between industrial agglomeration and haze pollution, while there was a negative correlation between population agglomeration, economic agglomeration and haze pollution. Thirdly, the economic agglomeration and haze pollution has entered the decline stage of inverted U curve. Fourthly, the haze pollution will have a crowding out effect on the local economy, so that the surrounding areas benefit from the effect. The Threshold Model was used to study the interaction mechanism of agglomeration and haze pollution under different urbanization rate. The results show that： Firstly, with the increasing of urbanization rate, the relationship between industrial agglomeration and haze pollution presents an inverted ＂ U＂ type relation. When the urbanization rate is greater than 68.60% , there is a negative correlation between industrial agglomeration and haze pollution. Secondly, with the increasing of urbanization rate, the negative correlation between economic agglomeration and haze pollution is becoming more and more significant.
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第9期83-93,共11页
Urban Problems
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(14YJCZH087)
关键词
集聚
雾霾污染
空间联立方程
门槛模型
agglomeration
haze pollution
spatial simultaneous equations
Threshold Model
