摘要
"一带一路"市场潜力巨大,是中国出口的重要增长点。文章利用Kaplan-Meier非参数方法,从总体上、不同类型产品等方面分析了1995~2013年中国出口"一带一路"贸易关系持续时间的特点,并基于Cloglog模型考察了影响因素。结果表明:中国出口"一带一路"贸易关系动态变化显著,持续时间中位数只有两年,但超过门槛值以后,贸易关系中断的概率明显降低;经济规模、多边阻力等进口国特征变量以及首次出口额、竞争力、差异化等产品特征变量对出口"一带一路"贸易关系生存影响较大;此外,多元化和人民币汇率变动也是影响出口"一带一路"贸易关系持续时间的重要变量。这些结论可以为实施"一带一路"战略,开拓沿线国家市场提供一些参考。
The potentiality of ‘Belt ＆ Road＇ market is very big and will become the new growth point of China＇s export. Using nonparametric Kaplan -Meier method and discrete time Cloglog model, this paper empirically researches the duration of China＇s export to ＇the Belt and Road＇. The result indicates the dynamic change of China＇s export to the ＇Belt and Road＇ is very remarkable and the median of the duration is only two years. There is threshold effect for China＇s export. The failure rate of export relationship after threshold value declines significantly. The gravitation factors, including economic scale, multilateral resistance and so on, have higher impact on the duration of China＇s export. While, the impact of product characteristics, including initial export volume, trade competition, differentiation and so on, is also significant. Moreover, Diversification and exchange rate is also one of the important factors. These conclusions will provide some reference for implementing the ‘Belt and Road＇ and exploring the potential market.
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第8期24-37,共14页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
国家社科基金(16BJY069)
江苏高校哲学社会科学项目(2015SJB137)
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(16JZD019)
