摘要
借助DEA-面板Tobit方法对2000~2014年"丝绸之路经济带"西北五省(区)入境旅游市场效率进行研究,发现重大事件对甘肃入境旅游市场的冲击较大。入境旅游市场发展分化趋势明显,青海、宁夏两地入境旅游市场的发展与陕西、新疆存在较大差距。整体而言,入境旅游人次的增加、产业结构的改善对各省(区)入境旅游市场效率具有促进作用,而货物贸易的发展则对入境旅游业产生了"挤出效应"。就各省(区)而言,具有高度垄断特征(俄罗斯游客为主)的新疆入境旅游市场抑制了其入境旅游市场效率的提升,而入境旅游人次增加、产业结构的改善、旅游交通的发展对不同省(区)的入境旅游市场效率都具有不同程度的促进作用。
This paper conducts a research on inbound tourism market of northwest five provinces （districts） in Silk road economic belt from 2000 to 2014 by DEA-panel Tobit approach, discovering that big events had big shocks on inbound tourism market in Gansu. There was an obvious differentiation trend, the inbound tourism market in Qinghai and Ningxia fell behind that in Shanxi and Xinjiang. On the whole, the increase in number of inbound tourists, the improvement in market structure had positive influences on inbound tourism market in every provinces （districts）, but the development of trade in goods had ＂crowding out effect＂ on inbound tourism market. In terms of every provinces （districts）, highly monopolized inbound tourism market （mostly Russian tourists） in Xiujiang had negative effect on its inbound tourism market, but the increase in number of inbound tourists, the improvement in market structure, the development of tourism transportation had positive influences on inbound tourism market in different provinces （districts）.
作者
唐睿
冯学钢
周成
TANG Rui FENG Xue-gang ZHOU Cheng
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第7期4-18,共15页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(12AJY008)
关键词
丝绸之路经济带
西北五省(区)
入境旅游市场效率
面板Tobit
Silk road economic belt
northwest five provinces （districts）
market efficiency of inbound tourism market
panel Tobit
