摘要
[目的]了解舟山市大气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))对居民循环系统疾病日死亡人数的影响。[方法]收集2014年舟山市居民循环系统疾病死亡数据、大气污染物(PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2)资料以及气象数据(平均气温和相对湿度),采用广义相加模型分析PM_(2.5)与当地居民循环系统疾病日死亡人数之间的关系。[结果]2014年舟山市PM_(2.5)日均浓度为31.22μg/m3,符合GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》中污染物浓度限值的一级标准,空气质量总体较好。在寒冷季节(1—4月和11—12月)的3种大气污染物浓度均较高,且与总人群的循环系统疾病日死亡人数和≥65岁居民的循环系统疾病日死亡人数的高峰期重叠。全年死于循环系统疾病的人数共2 120人,85%以上为≥65岁居民(老年人)。模型拟合结果显示:PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m^3,总人群的循环系统疾病死亡风险增加2.46%(95%CI:0.36%~4.55%)。PM_(2.5)在滞后2天时对总人群尤其是≥65岁居民的循环系统疾病死亡的影响更大。与温暖季节(5—10月)相比,这一效应在寒冷季节较明显。[结论]舟山市PM_(2.5)对居民尤其是老年人循环系统疾病日死亡有一定的影响,该效应在寒冷季节强于温暖季节。
[ Objective ] To evaluate the effect of fine particulate matters （PM20.5） on the daily mortality of circulatory diseases in Zhoushan City.[ Methods ] Data on daily mortality of circulatory diseases, daily air pollution （PM2.5, SO2, and NO2）, and meteorological factors （average temperature and relative humidity） during 2014 in Zhoushan were collected. Generalized additive model （GAM） was used to analyze the association between PM2.5 concentration and circulatory disease daily mortality.[ Results ] The daily PM2.5 level in selected city was 31.22 μG/m3 in 2014, which met the primary standard of Ambient Air Quality Standard （GB 3095-2012）. During cold season （from January to April, and from November to December）, the atmospheric pollutant concentrations were high and strongly linked with the daily mortality of circulatory diseases. The death toll for circulatory diseases was 2120 in 2014. The majority of them （〉85%） were older than 65 years. Circulatory disease mortality increased by 2.46% （95%CI： 0.36%-4.55%） for per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5. The relationships between circulatory disease mortality and PM2.5 concentrations in the total population and the residents≥ 65 years were stronger on lag 2 days and in cold season compared with warm season （from May to October）. [ Conclusion ] Short-term ambient PM2.5 exposure is associated with higher circulatory mortality in Zhoushan City, especially for the elderly. The effect is stronger in cold season than in warm season.
出处
《环境与职业医学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第3期224-229,共6页
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine
基金
浙江省科技计划项目(编号:2014C03025)
舟山市科技计划项目(编号:2014C31074)
关键词
细颗粒物
大气污染
循环系统疾病
广义相加模型
死亡
fine particulate matter
air pollution
circulatory disease
generalized additive model
mortality
