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变量相关性对可靠指标的影响分析 被引量:9

The Effect of Correlation between Variables on Reliability Index
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摘要 研究目的:可靠指标是衡量可靠性的一个重要指标,也是我国可靠性设计规范转轨阶段的重要目标值之一。目前我国铁路工程桥梁、路基、隧道、轨道等方面的极限状态设计规范已经发布,其余部分规范正在编制之中。无论对于后期规范的完善还是补充而言,建立准确的可靠指标计算方法都是极为必要且重要的。研究结论:本文首先从实际出发,指出了现行可靠指标计算表达式的缺陷;其次从概率论理论出发,推导了考虑变量相关性的可靠指标表达式;最后通过算例形式,分析了变量相关性对可靠指标的影响规律。本文的研究表明:(1)荷载项与抗力项之间的相关性与功能函数的可靠指标之间正相关;(2)荷载分项变量或抗力分项变量之间的相关性与功能函数的可靠指标之间负相关;(3)本文的研究对于我国可靠性设计规范的完善以及制定合理的分项系数具有理论支撑作用。 Research purposes: Reliability index is one of the important indexes to measure reliability, and is also one of the important target values in the transition period of China's reliability design standard (code). At present, the limit state design codes of bridge, roadbed, tunnel and rail of railway engineering have been released in China, while the others being in development. No matter for the perfection or the supplementation of these codes in the days to come, it is very necessary and important to establish an accurate calculation method of reliable index. Research conclusions:Firstly, from a practical point of view, this paper points out the defects of current reliability index calculation formula ; secondly, from probability theory, a new reliability index calculation formula is established considering correlation between variables; finally, through an example, the effect of correlation on the reliability index is analyzed. This result shows as follows: (1) The correlation between the load and the resistance is positively correlated with reliability index. (2) The correlation between the load parts or the resistance parts is negatively correlated with reliability index. (3) The research of this paper has an important theoretical support for the improvement of reliability design code and the establishment of a reasonable partial coefficient.
出处 《铁道工程学报》 EI 北大核心 2016年第12期19-23,共5页 Journal of Railway Engineering Society
关键词 相关性 可靠指标 极限状态设计 correlation reliability index limit state design
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