摘要
在传统灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的基础上,首先对预测模型的初始值进行优化,然后采用马尔科夫链对优化后的模型进一步改进,建立了一种基于初始值优化的灰色马尔科夫预测模型,优化后的模型可以有效提升预测的准确性和稳定性.最后通过对宁德市旅游入境总人数的实例分析,验证了新模型的有效性,拓展了灰色预测模型的应用范围,为宁德市旅游事业的发展提供了一种新方法和新思路.
On the basis of the traditional grey GM （ 1, 1 ） prediction model, the initial value of the forecasting model was optimized, and then Markov chain was used to further improve the optimized model. Based on the initial value optimization, a grey Markov prediction model was established. Consequently the optimized model can effectively improve the accuracy and stability of the prediction. Finally in order to provide a new method and new idea for the development of tourism in Ningde, by analyzing the instance of the total number of Ningde city tourism entry, the validity of the new model is verified, meanwhile the application range of the grey prediction model is expanded.
出处
《海南热带海洋学院学报》
2016年第5期55-59,共5页
Journal of Hainan Tropical Ocean University
基金
福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JAT160543)
福建省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201610398042)
宁德师范学院青年专项(2015Q05)
关键词
初始值优化
马氏灰色预测模型
实例分析
optimization of initial value
Markov Gray forecasting model
case analysis
