摘要
目的通过风险评估,探讨日照市乙脑、疟疾、登革热、丝虫病、基孔肯雅热和西尼罗热6种蚊媒传染病发生的可能性、危害性、人群易感性及综合风险大小,为针对性地开展蚊虫媒介防治,做好当地蚊媒传染病的防控提供依据。方法应用德尔菲法,邀请各相关领域专家评分,最后根据既定风险评估方案,计算6种蚊媒传染病传播流行风险等级,综合评价蚊媒传染病的风险大小。结果通过3轮专家风险评估,专家积极系数为1.00,3个方面的权威系数分别为0.71、0.74和0.72,协调系数分别为0.69、0.66和0.67,专家意见趋势一致。对单个蚊媒传染病病种/聚集性疫情在日照市传播流行的可能性、危害性和易感性进行综合分析,乙脑(8.58)和疟疾(8.01)综合风险为高,登革热(7.77)的综合风险为中等,丝虫病(5.94)、基孔肯雅热(4.61)和西尼罗热(4.10)的综合风险为低。结论日照市今后蚊媒传染病防控工作应重点关注风险高和较高的蚊媒传染病。完善相应蚊媒传染病应急预案,定期开展蚊虫媒介的监测,努力做好蚊媒传染病的防控工作。
Objective To explore the likelihood,harmfulness,population susceptibility and comprehensive risk in relation to mosquito-borne diseases risk by means of risk assessment in Rizhao City,and provide the basis for prevention and control mosquito-borne diseases. Methods Delphi method was used and experts were invited to score for designed questions,and mosquito-borne diseases comprehensive risks were evaluated according to the risk evaluation plan. Results After three rounds of risk evaluation by experts,the coefficient of expert activity was1. 00,the coefficients of authority were 0. 71,0. 74 and 0. 72 respectively in likelihood,harmfulness and susceptibility.The coefficients of coordination were 0. 69,0. 66 and 0. 67 respectively. The viewpoints of experts tended to be consistent. Comprehensive analysis showed that the risks of Japanese encephalitis（ 8. 58） and malaria（ 8. 01） were high,dengue fever（ 7. 77） the medium,and filariasis（ 5. 94）,chikungunya fever（ 4. 61） and West Nile fever（ 4. 10）low. Conclusion In the future of Rizhao City,close attention should be paid to the risk of Japanese encephalitis,malaria and dengue fever. It is important to carry out the monitoring of mosquito vectors.
出处
《中华卫生杀虫药械》
CAS
2016年第5期466-469,473,共5页
Chinese Journal of Hygienic Insecticides and Equipments
基金
山东省自然科学基金资助项目(编号:ZR2011HM033)
山东省医药卫生科技发展计划项目(编号:2014WS0386)
关键词
德尔菲法
风险评估
蚊媒病
Delphi method
risk assessment
mosquito-borne diseases
