摘要
安徽省为新型城镇化建设示范省,探索其城镇化演进对生态环境胁迫的演化规律,对制定城镇化健康、可持续发展的规制政策具有启示意义.本文选取人均工业废水排放等表征工业生产、农业生产、生活消费的10项指标,采用熵值赋权法,就经济社会发展对环境胁迫状况进行了评价;运用LMDI分解模型,对城镇化演进的环境胁迫指数进行了测算;基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论,立足增量视角,遵循内在逻辑关系,采用回归分析方法,对城镇化和其环境胁迫间演化规律进行了考察.结果表明:1经济社会发展对环境胁迫指数由2000年的0.061 9增至2013年的0.817 3,年均增长21.96%;2城镇化演进对环境胁迫指数由2001年的0.004 2跃升至2013年的0.171 5,年均增长36.22%;3城镇化与其累计环境胁迫契合N型曲线演化规律.现阶段,城镇化对环境胁迫处于N型曲线右侧上升通道.揭示了安徽省推进城镇化与生态文明建设矛盾日渐突出,新型城镇化建设面临较大挑战,从以提高城镇化质量为核心,依靠科技进步,产业结构优化,实现城镇化与环境质量的协调融合等方面,提出了未来城镇化建设的政策建议.
Anhui Province is a new model of urbanization construction. To explore the ecological environ- ment stress evolution laws of urbanization is of enlightenment significance to formulate healthy regulation policy of urbanization with sustainable development. A total of 10 indices characterizing industrial production, agricultural production and living consumption, such as per-capita industrial waste discharge, are selected with entropy weighting method to evaluate the environment stress conditions of economic and social development. LMDI de- composition model is adopted to calculate the environmental stress index of urbanization development. Based on the environmental Kuznets curve theory from the incremental perspective, the internal logic relationship is followed with the regression analysis method to investigate the urbanization and its environmental stress evolution laws. The results show that： （ 1 ） the environment stress index of economic and social development increased from 0.061 9 in 2000 to 0.817 3 in 2013 with annual average growth of 21.96% ; （2） the environmental stress index of urbanization jumped from 0. 004 2 in 2001 to 0. 171 5 in 2013 with annual average growth of 36.22% （3） the relation between urbanization and its cumulative environmental stress is consistent with N-shaped curve evolution law. At present, the environmental stress of urbanization enters the right rising channel of N-shaped curve. The increasing contradiction between urbanization and ecological civilization construction in Anhui prov- ince is revealed. The new urbanization construction faces bigger challenges. Therefore, policy suggestions on fu- ture urbanization construction are put forward with the core of improving urbanization quality, relying on scientific and technological progress with industrial structure optimization, in order to realize the coordinated fusion be- tween urbanization and environment quality.
作者
张乐勤
ZHANG Le-qin(Resource Environment College, Chizhou College, Chizhou 247000, Anhui, Chin)
出处
《山西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2016年第3期110-117,共8页
Journal of Shanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
安徽省教育厅高校省级自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2014A175)
安徽省社会科学规划项目(AHSKY2014D53)
池州学院与池州市环保局合作实践教学质量工程建设项目
关键词
城镇化
环境胁迫
增量
库兹涅茨曲线
LMDI分解模型
urbanization
environmental stress
increment
environmental Kuznets curve
LMDI decomposition model
