摘要
基于5个主要长线市场(美国、澳大利亚、法国、德国、英国)的近19年年度数据,通过采用自回归分布滞后模型(ADLM)对影响上海入境旅游需求的主要因素进行分析,并运用"从一般到具体"(general-to-specific)的计量经济建模方法确定最终模型。分析结果表明,客源国的经济状况是上海入境旅游需求的重要决定因素,上海的旅游成本、"口碑效应"以及一些突发事件会对不同客源国入境旅游需求产生显著影响。最后通过对旅游需求弹性的分析为上海旅游产业政策制定提供了政策建议和实证依据。
This paper aims to identify the most influential factors of Shanghai＇s inbound tourism demand by using the autoregressive distributed lag model （ADLM） on. international tourist arrivals from the United States, Australia, France, Germany and the United Kingdom for the period of 1995 - 2013. The general-to -specific modeling approach was adopted to achieve the final models. The empirical results reveal that the most impor-tant factors that determine the international demand for Shanghai tourism is the economic condition, in. the origin, countries. The costs of tourism in. Shanghai,＂ word-of-mouth effect＂ and some special one-off events also have significant impact on. the international demand of Shanghai tourism. The elasticity of demand obtained from the demand models form the basis for policy making of tourism industry in. Shanghai.
出处
《科技和产业》
2016年第8期39-44,共6页
Science Technology and Industry
基金
海南省高等学校科学研究项目(HNJGZD201410)
