摘要
目的:定量预测我国2015—2025年城镇老年人体质状况,探析城镇老年人体质发展规律。方法:以历次全国城镇老年人体质监测数据为时间序列,建立灰色EGM预测模型,对城镇老年人体质进行预测。结果:2015—2025年,身体形态指标:各指标序列数值均呈增长趋势,但总体比2014年之前实测数据增幅小,各指标增幅男、女均为腰围>体重>胸围>臀围>身高,BMI、腰臀比继续增长;身体机能指标:肺活量呈增长趋势,女性增幅大于男性增幅;身体素质指标:男、女两性握力呈下降趋势,且女性降幅大于男性。结论:预测显示,未来10年,我国城镇老年人体质总体水平变化速度趋缓,部分身体机能与素质指标将减缓甚至扭转2000年后快速下降趋势,如呼吸功能、柔韧性等;但肥胖、握力、平衡能力等继续下滑,特别是超重与肥胖向苹果型肥胖身材变化趋势应引起警示。建议加大日常体力活动,合理膳食,提高体质健康水平。
Objective：This paper quantitatively predicts the physical conditions of the elderly in the urbans from 2015 to 2025,analyzes the law of physique development and provides data references to improve the urban elderly physical health.Methods：We establish the Grey EGM Prediction Models,taking previous four times national physique monitoring data of the urban elderly as time series,to forecast the urban elderly physique.Results：from 2015 to 2025,body shape indicators：each index sequences are on the rise,while totality of the growth rate are smaller than before 2014,and each index increase is waistline circumferenceweightchest circumference〉hip circumference 〉height,the ratio of BMI and waist-hip continue to grow;body function indicators：lung capacity shows a trend of growth and the increase growth of female is greater than that of male;physical quality indicators：male and female gender grip strength decreased,and the women fell more than men.Conclusions：Our predictions show that speed of physique in the overall level will slow down in the next 10 years,some body function and qualities will change the status of the rapid decline around 2000,most of the indicators will slow or even reverse the rapid decline,such as respiratory function and flexibility will be in a slight increase,while obesity,grip and balanced capacity will continue to decline,especially overweight and a trend of apple obesity shape should cause alarm.Therefore,we should increase daily physical activities and reasonable diet in order to improve the levels of physical health.
出处
《体育科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第6期92-96,F0003,共6页
China Sport Science
关键词
老年人
体质
预测
灰色EGM模型
城镇
the elderly
physical quality
prediction
Grey EGM model
urban
