摘要
针对长江中上游地区延伸期降水预报,利用时空投影法,建立了以NCEP/NCAR再分析资料为预报因子的降水延伸期预报模型,并进行了回报试验。模型采用SVD方法耦合发报时刻过去2～4侯低频波序列和发报时刻未来2～6侯长江中上游各区降水序列,得到预报因子和预报对象之间的关系,做出降水量范围预报。采用2012～2013年长江中上游降水资料进行了回报试验,初步检验了模型预报能力。结果表明,建立的预报模型对长江中上游延伸期降水预报有一定参考价值。
Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the Spatial-Temporal Projection Method（ STPM）,we constructed a statistical model of the extended-range rainfall forecast in the upper and middle Yangtze River and conducted hindcast.By using the singular value decomposition（ SVD） analysis,the coupled patterns between the low frequency waves in the past 2 ～ 4pentad and the regional rainfall in the future 2 ～ 6 pentad was derived.The forecast of precipitation range is obtained by the relationship between the predictors and forecast objects.We used the observed data from 2012 to 2013 to assess the prediction ability of the STPM model.The results show that the STPM model has reference for the extended-range forecast of the upper and middle reaches of Yangtze River.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2016年第7期28-33,共6页
Yangtze River
基金
三峡水库科学调度关键技术研究"2014年课题五<三峡水库中长期来水量预报研究>"(2414020004)
关键词
统计模型
延伸期降水预报
时空投影法
长江中上游
statistical model
extended range forecast of rainfall
Spatial-Temporal Projection Method
upper and middle reaches of Yangtze River
