基于Probit模型的老年健康休闲旅游决策影响因素研究——以江苏省为例被引量：13

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Seniors' Healthy and Leisure Travel Decision Based on the Probit Model——A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

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摘要运用二元Probit离散选择模型计量法,基于江苏省578名老年旅游者样本数据,定量分析了人口特征、旅游目的地拉力和旅游者自身推力3大变量下的19个影响因素与老年健康休闲旅游决策之间的关系.结果显示,修正后的旅游者决策影响因素Probit模型具有统计学意义,年龄、文化程度、健康状况、目的地生态环境、休闲养老配套设施、医疗水平、游客自身经济条件等7个变量与旅游者决策之间存在明显的相关性,其中年龄和文化程度为负向关系,其他均为正向关系.研究结果对今后更好地引导老年健康休闲旅游市场的发展具有重要的理论意义和应用价值. Exploiting the questionnaires from 578 senior travellers in Jiangsu Province,the paper quantitatively analyses the relationship between 19 influential factors and decisions of the senior healthy and leisure travellers based on a Bivariate Discrete Probit Choice Model. The influential factors are guided into three main variables：population characteristics,the pull factors of the tourist destinations and the push factors of the tourists. The result shows that the modified visitor decision-influenced Probit model exhibits statistical significance. Age,degree of education,health conditions,the ecological environment of the destination,the leisure endowment supporting facilities,the medical level and the economic conditions of the travellers indicate obvious correlation with the decisions. Among the variables,the age and the degree of education have the negative influence,and the others are positive. The findings have important theoretical significances and application values to guide the development of the senior healthy and leisure tourism in the future.

作者谈志娟黄震方吴丽敏张子昂

机构地区扬州大学商学院南京师范大学地理科学学院

出处《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2016年第1期117-123,共7页 Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基金国家自然科学基金(41271149 41301145) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(14YJC790003)

关键词健康休闲旅游决策影响因素 PROBIT模型江苏省 healthy and leisure travel influential factors of the decision Probit model Jiangsu Province

分类号 F590 [经济管理—旅游管理]

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