摘要
针对目前城市轨道交通线网规模预测存在的问题,即不同预测方法的预测结果相差较大,操作性和解释性不强,提出城市轨道交通合理规模的概念,从宏观和微观层面分析城市轨道交通合理规模的影响因素。在分析服务水平法、交通需求分析法和回归分析法的适用性及优缺点的基础上,应用几何平均数改进标准化处理过程,计算各预测方法结果的信息熵,并根据熵的大小推导各方法权重系数,从而建立基于改进熵权系数的城市轨道交通合理规模综合计算模型。以重庆市为例,应用该模型得出2020年重庆市轨道交通合理规模值。
Targeting with problems existing in current forecast of line-network scale of urban rail transit, such as different forecast method has great difference in forecast result and has less operability and explanation, this paper puts forward the concept of reasonable scale of urban rail transit, and analyzes the influence factors of the reasonable scale from macro-level and micro- level. Based on analyzing the applicability, advantages and disadvantages of service level method, traffic demand analysis and regression analysis, the standardization process is improved by using geometric mean, the information entropy of each forecast method result is calculated and the weight coefficient of each forecast method is derived according to the entropy value, thereby, the comprehensive calculation model of reasonable scale of urban rail transit based on improved entropy-weights coefficient is established. Taking Chongqing as an example, the reasonable scale value of urban rail transit in Chongqing in 2020 is achieved by using the calculation model.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2016年第2期71-75,共5页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金(51308569)
重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究重点项目(14SKG03)
重庆市基础与前沿研究计划项目(cstc2013jcyj A30002)
关键词
城市轨道交通
线网规模
信息熵
计算模型
服务水平
Urban Rail Transit
Line-network Scale
Information Entropy
Calculation Model
Service Level
