摘要
利用普洱CIND3830-CC天气雷达资料、地面观测资料进行统计分析,研究2004—2013年普洱C波段天气雷达中V型缺口的统计特征、V型缺口与地面降雹的对应关系,并对V型缺口在冰雹预警方面的应用及其对短时临近预报预警的影响进行探讨,结果表明：（1）V型缺口的最佳观测仰角为0.5°~2.4°,垂直高度上,V型缺口的高度出现在2.1~6.5 km。（2）将V型缺口分为2种类型,第一类为块状强回波单体径向后侧的V型缺口,第二类为片状或块状多单体回波径向后侧的V型缺口。（3）第一类V型缺口的组合反射率（CR）为50~66 dBz,普遍≥55 dBz,出现冰雹的几率为69%。（4）第二类V型缺口的CR为47~64 dBz,普遍为50~55 dBz,出现冰雹的几率为29%。（5）当出现V型缺口、H_（45 dBz）≥7.5 km、CR≥55 dBz时,可预报有冰雹出现,准确率达100%,V型缺口对冰雹预警的时间提前量为5~102 min。此外,得出了V型缺口内冰雹回波的识别方法。
Based on the statistical analysis of the CIND3830-CC CINRAD data and surface observation data, the statistical characteristics of ‘V’ notch and the relationship between the ‘V’ notch and surface hail event at Pu＇er observation during 2004--2013 are analyzed. The application of ‘V’ notch for hail early warning and the influence of ‘V’ notch for short-term forecast are discussed as well. The results show that： （1） The best observation elevation ranges of the ‘V’ notch are from 0.5 to 2.4 degree elevation while the height that the ‘V’ notch occurs ranges from 2.1 to 6.5 km. （2） The ‘V’ notch can be divided into two types, the first one is at the radial back of massive echo cell while the second one is located in the radial back of schistose or massive echo multi-cells. （3） The composition reflectivity of type Ⅰ ‘V’ notch ranges from 50 to 66 dBz, generally equal or greater than 55 dBz, with a hail occurrence probability of 69%. （4） The composite reflectivity of type Ⅱ ‘V’ notch ranges from 47 to 64 dBz, generally around 50 to 55 dBz, with a hail occurrence probability of 29%. （5） Hail event can be forecasted when the ‘V’ notch is observed and H45 dBz≥7. 5 km, CR≥55 dBz with the rate of accuracy up to 100 %. The early warning for ‘V’ notch is 5-102 min early. In addition, the identification method for hail echo in ‘V’ notch is studied.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第1期67-73,共7页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006004和GYHY201306025)共同资助
关键词
天气预报
C波段天气雷达
冰雹
V型缺口
统计分析
预警
weather forecast, C band weather radar, hail, ＇V＇ notch, statistical analysis, early warning
