摘要
突发事件应急决策问题具有典型的复杂系统特性,本文深入分析了传统决策问题和应急决策问题的差异,考虑应急决策问题的特殊约束条件,提出了面向突发事件的复杂系统应急决策方法——"基于跨域仿真的应急决策方法",该方法由三条基本准则、跨域仿真模型、基于跨域仿真的决策支持模型三部分组成.三条基本准则包括动态锚定、有效策略、底线原则,分别针对应急决策面临的决策目标动态不确定、方案评估缺乏评价依据、决策调整难以实施三大难题给出了解决途径;跨域仿真采用"数据-模型"融合的方式解决突发事件仿真的"仿不准"难题;基于跨域仿真的决策模型实现了复杂突发事件的有效决策.本文提出的基于跨域仿真的应急决策方法具有一定的方法论意义,可推广适用于多种具有复杂系统特征的广义决策问题.
Based on comparison between classical decision-making issues and crisis decision-making issues, specified constrain conditions of crisis decision-making are analyzed, which behaves more like a complex system. In this paper, a decision-making method for complex crisis is developed, which consists of three principles, a cross-simulation model, and a decision-making model based on cross-simulation. The three principles include the dynamic anchoring principle, the effective non-optimal principle, and the bottom line principle. The three principles aim at three major difficulties of crisis decision-making, which are no-fixed objective, lack of evaluation method, and hard to adjust. The cross-simulation model contributes to accuracy and reliability of simulation with integration of data and models. The decision-making model based on cross-simulation provides effective decision support for complex crisis. The method developed in this paper may be applied to more complex issues not limited to crisis.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第10期2449-2458,共10页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金(91324022
91224008
91024032
70601015
70833003)
国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAK12B01)
关键词
应急决策
跨域仿真
复杂系统
crisis decision-making support
cross-simulation
complex system
