摘要
随着海洋开发利用的纵深发展,海洋灾害成为影响中国海洋经济持续健康发展的因素。通过构建海洋灾害损失指数,评估1989-2011年中国沿海地区海洋灾害损失情况,利用格兰杰因果检验与VAR模型分析海洋灾害损失与沿海地区经济增长的动态关系。实证分析结果表明,海洋灾害虽然对沿海地区的发展带来直接的经济损失,但并不是影响沿海地区经济增长的主要因素;而沿海地区经济增长是导致海洋灾害损失的格兰杰原因,且具有持久性影响。鉴于此,沿海地区在提高海洋灾害应急管理能力的同时,科学发展海洋经济成为降低海洋灾害损失的正确选择。
Marine disaster is a big obstacle to the social and economic development in coastal areas. China is one of the countries seriously affected by marine disasters. In the marine disaster control, loss evaluation is the core content of disaster grade division and risk prevention of marine disasters, and is also the key to study the relationship between marine disasters and economic.Theoretically, the marine disaster will disrupt the normal order of production, reduce economic efficiency, and affect the marine economy. But from a dynamic point of view, investment and consumption caused by marine disasters may also make the marine disasters have posi-tive effects on the development of marine economy.Inaddition, the development of marine economy will in-crease the marine disaster losses. Therefore, the question that whether there is a correlation between the marine disaster losses and marine economic growth, is it positive or negative, is worth in-depth study. With the ocean development and exploitation in depth and breadth, marine disasters have become an important factor affecting the sustainable and healthy development of our marine economy. Evaluates the loss of marine disasters in the coastal areas of China from 1989 to 2011 by constructing the marine disaster loss index, and then analyzes the dynamic relationship between economic growth in coastal areas and marine disaster losses with Granger cau-sality test and VAR model. The empirical analysis shows thatcoastal economic growth rate and the marine di-saster losses show synergistic fluctuation trend;marine disaster brings direct economic losses to the develop-ment of the coastal area, but is not the main factor;yet the economic growth in coastal areas Granger causes the marine disaster losses, and has a durability effect. There are two main reasons：first, economic growth in-creased coastal economic density, the disaster bearing bodies are more susceptible to marine disasters;second, over exploitation and utilization of marine resources will damage the ecological environment of the sea, the fre-quent occurrence of red tide disaster is a good example.The ＂Eighteen report＂ clearly pointed out the macro goal that＂improve the marine resources development ability, develop the marine economy, protect the marine ecological environment, and resolutely safeguard the national marine rights and interests＂, in view of this, im-proving the marine disaster emergency management ability and at the same time scientific development the ma-rine economy is the correct selections of coastal areas for reducing the marine disaster loss.
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第8期969-975,共7页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
教育部人文社科重点研究基地中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院资助项目(2013JDZS01)
关键词
海洋灾害损失
沿海地区经济增长
格兰杰因果
脉冲响应
主成分分析
marine disaster losses
economic growth coastal
Granger causality
impulse response
principal component analysis
