摘要
为研究34年来菏泽市气候干湿状况的变化,并对该市干旱灾害进行风险区划,给市、区(县)各级人民政府防御干旱灾害风险提供理论数据支撑,指导农、林业的生产和发展。主要利用菏泽市最近34年气象站基本资料,分析菏泽市的潜在蒸散量和湿润指数变化,同时利用地理区划软件Mapinfo对该地区的干湿风险灾害进行区划分析。结果表明:(1)20世纪80年代以来,菏泽市年均潜在蒸散量和降水量水平都有所增加,但降水量的增加程度远远低于潜在蒸散量,于是湿润指数一直呈现下降趋势,年均降幅约为1.05%;(2)年均潜在蒸散量的增加主要由于气温上升和湿度下降两个因素影响,其中湿度下降对其产生的影响最大,两者正相关系数分别为0.312和0.94;(3)从时间轴上看,每年10月到次年6月为菏泽市干旱灾害多发期,尤其是每年的12月到次年4月,月平均湿润指数<0.5,为旱灾易发期;(4)目前,鲁西南8县1区中,单县的湿润程度最好,曹县、定陶、牡丹区等次之,鄄城县的湿润程度最差。
In order to research the 34-year dry/wet indexes in the Heze City of Shandong Province, and analyze the distribution characteristics of potential evaporation and humid indexes, to provided the theoretical support for the city district （county） government, and guide the agricultural production , by using the 32-year data from the weather station in Heze City of Shandong Province andgeographical division software Mapinfo , the distribution characteristics of potential evapotranspiration humid indexes were analyzed. The results showed that： （ 1 ） Since 1980＇ s, the annual mean potential evapotranspiration and precipitation have been increasing, but precipitation increase in the volume level was much lower than potential evapotranspiration, so the humid index decreased and theaverage annual decline is about 1.05 percent; （2）The increase of potential evapotranspiration was mainly affected by the raise of temperature and the drop of humidityand the humidity drop is the largest impact factor; the correlation coefficients were 0. 312 and 0.94 respectively; （3）In Southwest of Shandong Province, the drought disaster occured most easily from October of this year to June of next year, especially from December of this year to April of next year. Therefore, we should prepare for fighting against spring drought and spring-winter drought; （4） The humidity of Shanxian County was the best among the 9 districts of Heze City, Mudan Distrct and 5 other nearby ditricts cames second; Juan cheng County was at the largest risk of drought, which should be paid enough attention by the agricultural sector.
出处
《成都信息工程学院学报》
2015年第2期199-203,共5页
Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology
基金
山东省气象局青年科研基金资助项目(2014SDQN20)
关键词
大气科学
气候
潜在蒸散量
湿润指数
风险区划
干旱
菏泽市
atmospheric
climate
potential evapotranspiration
the moist index
risk zoning
drought
Heze City
