摘要
地下水水位变化特征是研究区域地下水的基础,采用优化GM(1,1)模型对温州市永强平原地下水水位进行模拟和预测,优化模型后验差比值和平均相对误差均明显低于GM(1,1)模型,表明优化模型在预测精度上有很大提高,可靠性更好,为地下水水位预测提供了一条新途径。
Variable characteristics of groundwater level is fundamental for local groundwater research. The optimized GM（1, 1） model was adopted to stimulate and predict groundwater level in Yongqiang plain of Wenzhou city. The posterior error ratio and the average relative residual error ratio of optimized grey GM（1, 1） were significantly lower than those of GM（1, 1） model, which showed that the prediction accuracy and reliability of optimized model were improved significantly. The optimization of Grey GM（1, 1） model and its application provided a new method for the groundwater prediction.
关键词
灰色理论
GM(1
1)
优化模型
温州市
永强平原
地下水水位预测
theory of grey system
GM（1, 1）
optimized model
Wenzhou city
Yongqiang plain
groundwater level prediction
