摘要
为了解广珠通道内广珠城轨和公路客运的竞争和合作关系,通过对广珠通道旅客进行SP和RP调查,分析广珠通道旅客出行方式选择行为特征。运用非集计二项Logit模型构建广珠通道内城轨和公路客运客流分担率预测模型,按照加法规则,从经济性、舒适性、安全性、服务质量、快捷性和方便性6个方面构建效用函数。然后,通过该模型计算2014年两种运输方式的分担率分别为50.46%和49.54%,结果显示广珠城轨的开通运营对公路客运的冲击是非常巨大的,直接抢走了公路客运50%的客流量。最后,采用敏感性分析方法探讨公路客运企业的应对措施的效果,预测2015年两种运输方式的分担率分别为47.7%和52.3%,结果显示面对广珠城轨的冲击和竞争,公路客运企业提高自身竞争力的效果是非常有限的。
Based on the SP and RP survey to passengers, the characteristic of passenger travel mode choice behavior was analyzed to understand the competition and cooperation relationship between inter- city rail and highway passenger transport in Guangzhou-Zhuhai Corridor. A model was built to predict the share rate of passengers of intercity rail and highway passenger transport in Guangzhou-Zhuhai Cor- ridor by using disaggregate binomial Logit model. Based on addition rule, the utility function was built according to six aspects which were economy, comfort, safety, service quality, speed and convenience. The share rates of two kinds of transport modes in 2014 which were predicted by using constructed share rate model were 50.46% and 49.54% respectively. The results show that the impact of the operating of the Guangzhou-Zhuhai intercity rail to the highway passenger transport is very huge, it directly robbed the passenger flow of highway transport by 50%. Finally, the sensitivity analysis method was used to ex- plore the effects of highway passenger transport enterprise＇ s countermeasures. The share rate of two kinds of transport mode in 2015 are predicted as 50.46% and 49.54% respectively. The result of the analysis shows that the effect for highway passenger transport enterprises to improve their competitive- ness is very limited, when facing the impact and competition of the Guangzhou-Zhuhai intercity rail.
出处
《交通运输研究》
2015年第3期71-77,共7页
Transport Research
关键词
旅客运输
出行特征
LOGIT模型
效用函数
客流分担率
passenger transport
travel characteristic
Logit model
utility function
share rate of pas-sengers
