摘要
能源燃烧产物是PM2.5暴露水平提高的重要因素,燃烧不同种类的能源对PM2.5形成的影响机理不同,但各类能源消耗量对人群PM2.5暴露水平的影响程度尚不明确。基于2003—2010年的PM2.5质量浓度与煤炭、焦炭、原油、汽油、煤油、柴油、燃料油、天然气和电力消耗数据组成的面板数据,建立了不同种类能源消耗影响我国人群PM2.5暴露水平的随机效应模型。结果表明,我国2003—2010年多数省(市、自治区)的年均PM2.5质量浓度超过了世界卫生组织的标准。在研究时间段内,不同种类能源消耗量对人群PM2.5暴露水平的影响具有较大差异,煤炭、焦炭、汽油和煤油消耗对人群PM2.5暴露水平具有正影响,其中,正向影响最大的为焦炭消耗量,表明工业消耗焦炭对形成PM2.5的促进作用比较明显;与焦炭消耗量具有相近的影响效果的因素是汽油消耗,表明改进机动车和航空燃油技术同样非常重要;原油、柴油、燃料油、天然气和电力消耗对人群PM2.5暴露水平具有负影响,其中负向影响最大的为电力消耗量,表明电力作为一种清洁能源,有利于降低人群PM2.5暴露水平。
This paper intends to make an analysis of the panel data of PM2.5 concentration and energy consumption of 29 provinces during the period of 2003- 2010 in China based on the LS estimation model. As is known,energy combustion is a principal influential factor on the high concentration of PM2.5 in China. So far,it has not been made clear as to the influential effects produced by the different kinds of energy consumption on the PM2.5 formation. Therefore,we have designed a population-weighted PM2.5 exposure model,which can help to explain the variable heteroscedastic effects to eliminate from panel data. The panel data include nine types of energy sources,including coal,coke,crude oil,gasoline,kerosene,diesel oil,fuel oil,natural gas and electricity. Through F-test and Hausman test,it would be possible for us to apply the random effects model to expounding the impact effects of the energy consumed on the population-weighted PM2.5 exposure. The results show that the PM2.5 concentrations of the most provinces in the past few years prove to be higher than the permitted limit assigned by the World Health Organization. In the study,we have quoted four impact factors that may have positive effects on the population-weighted PM2.5 exposure,which are the coal consumption,the coke consumption,the gasoline consumption and the kerosene consumption. Of the four,coke consumption should be obviously considered to be the most important factor for the increase of population-weighted PM2.5 exposure in China today. It is also clear that coke combustion in China＇s industry has greatly contributed to the pollution consequence. Gasoline consumption serves as another important factor making a serious effect on the population-weighted PM2.5 exposure. Therefore,China has to make great efforts in improving the technology of gasoline combustion. On the other hand,the aforementioned five impact factors tend to have negative effects on population-weighted PM2.5 exposure in the past years. Among the said five factors,crude oil consumption,diesel oil consumption,fuel oil consumption,natural gas consumption and electricity consumption,electricity can be regarded as the clean source of energy which is believed to contribute to the reduction of the pollution in the form of PM2.5.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第3期335-340,共6页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(81450022)
河南省基础与前沿技术研究计划项目(132300410473)
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2014BJJ033)
