摘要
依据基于地面气象要素的相似预报方法,利用环渤海地区1960~2010年57个地面测站的降水和风速气象资料,探讨了相似预报法进行延伸期预报的可行性。2000~2010年预报效果表明：该方法对夏季降水日数有一定的预报能力,除去8月第27~30 d的预报外,其预报准确率均高于气候概率。6~7月中雨预报准确率在8%~10%之间,整体超过了气候概率值;夏季大雨和暴雨的延伸期预报准确率大多较气候概率值高,预报结果可信。对于0~2级风速预报而言,各季节存在明显差异,预报准确率最高值出现在夏季,高达85%,最低值出现在春季,为50%左右;对于3~4级风速预报,一年中有8个月的预报准确率维持在10%左右;在2~4月日均风速≥5级的预报准确率为7%~10%,而日最大风速≥5级的预报准确率明显高于日均风速的预报准确率,最低预报准确率为18.5%,最高可达39.1%。风速的预报结果与同类研究对比发现,基于地面气象要素的相似预报方法在延伸期风速预报中具有一定的应用价值。
According to the analog method,the similarity relationships of meteorological elements were used to make extended range forecast,based on the daily precipitation and wind speed data from 57 surface meteorological stations around Bohai Sea during 1960-2010. The forecasted results from 2000 to 2010 shows that the method is useful for forecasting rain day in summer,TS score is greater than the climate probability values in summer except for the 27th- 30 th day＇s forecasting results in August. The forecasting accuracy for moderate rain from June to July is between 8% and 10%,and the TS score is higher than the climatic probability value as a whole.TS scores for heavy rain and torrential rain are mostly higher than the climatic probability value. So the forecast for rainfall is basically credible. Seasonal difference for wind scale 0- 2 forecast is obvious,the maximum accuracy of forecast appeared in summer is 85%,and the minimum value appeared in spring fluctuates around 50%. For wind scale 3 to 4 forecast,the TS scores fluctuate around 10%in 8 months of one year. The accuracy of daily mean wind- scale above 5 forecast is between 7% and 10% from February to April,and the maximum daily wind speed forecast above 5 scale is obviously better than the daily mean wind- scale above 5,the lowest is18. 5%,and the highest is 39. 1%. Compared with the step- by- step filter method,the forecast based on surface elements similarity relationship is identical for 4- to- 10 day wind forecast,so the prediction is basically credible. And this analog forecast method has certain application value on extended range forecast.
出处
《干旱气象》
2015年第2期324-331,共8页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
干旱气象科学研究基金(IAM201404)
兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(lzujbky-2013-108)
半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室(兰州大学)开放基金共同资助
关键词
延伸期预报
相似预报
降水
风速
extended range forecast analog method precipitation wind speed
