摘要
为探讨鄱阳湖入湖流量变化特征,以便为鄱阳湖五河流域的水资源管理提供科学依据,根据鄱阳湖五河流域6个水文站近60年的实测径流量资料,采用差积曲线—秩检验联合识别法分析五河流域入湖年径流量的变异性,采用五点滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall秩次检验法分析各站年径流量的变化趋势,应用小波分析法识别各站的变化周期。研究结果表明,各水文控制站年径流序列均未发生突变;各水文站的年径流变化趋势均不显著,鄱阳湖入湖总量在1953~1956、1968~1976、1990~2001年处于丰水年,在1958~1967、1978~1985、2002~2013年处于枯水年;各站均存在19年左右的主周期。
In order to investigate the characteristics of changing flow into Poyang Lake for providing a scientific basis for water resources management of Poyang Lake five rivers basin, according to the measured data of runoff through five rivers flow into Poyang lake in latest 60 years, the difference curve-rank test is used to detect the change-point of each sta- tion. And then the five moving average method and Mann-Kendall method are applied to analyze the variation trend of an- nual runoff of each hydrologic station. Finally, the wavelet analysis method is adopted to identify the main cycles of run- off. The results show that the annual runoff series of all station did not appear sudden-change point and the annual runoff chartge trend of all hydrologic stations were not significant. What＇s more, the totals flow into Poyang Lake were in wet years in the year of 1953-1956, 1968-1976 and 1990-2001 and were in low flow years in 1958-1967, 1978-1985 and 2002- 2013. It also shows that all hydrologic stations have the main cycles of 19 years.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2015年第5期1-4,18,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
江西省重大生态安全问题监控协同创新中心资助项目(JXS-EW-00)
