摘要
在实时洪水预报系统中,如何提高平原区河网的预报精度是研究的难点。该文以河网节点水位三级解法为基础,结合单一河道最优卡尔曼滤波校正模式,通过对节点校正量传播形式的研究和分析,提出基于节点传播的环状河网实时校正模型。通过该校正技术,可根据实测站点校正值,确定其所在河道校正新息分布,并通过节点得到相邻河道所有断面校正量,以实现整个河网的实时校正。通过长江澄通河段的实例表明,该校正方法计算稳定,与无校正模拟情况相比,基于节点传播的河网校正技术能有效提高1 h和3 h峰、谷值的预报结果和短期预报精度。
To improve the accuracy the flood forecast of plain river network is a challenging task in real-time flood forecast system. Based on the three-step method in dealing with the water levels at the key nodes of a river network and the Kalman filtering mode optimization for 1D hydrodynamic model, a correction model for the looping river network is proposed after the research and analysis of nodal correction’s transmitting methods. By this model, the corrected innovation of the model errors at observation stations is transmitted to the adjacent cross sections of the river network to correct the forecasted values through the nodal transmitting. A case study of the Chengtong section of the the Yangtze River indicates that the proposed method would help to maintain the stability of hydrodynamic models. The real-time correction in river network based on nodal transmitting is practical and effective in improving the accuracy of real-time forecasting.
出处
《水动力学研究与进展（A辑）》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第1期75-82,共8页
Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201301068
201301075)
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2014ZX07101-011)~~
关键词
实时洪水预报
河网实时校正
水动力学
卡尔曼滤波
节点传播
real-time flood forecasting
real-time correction in river network
hydrodynamics
Kalman filter
nodal transmitting
