摘要
为深入研究高速公路安全系统,用系统动力学(SD)方法分析驾驶员、车辆、道路、应急救援等组成要素以及环境、管理等影响因素之间的关系,建立高速公路安全系统因果关系模型和存量流量模型。用层次分析法(AHP)确定各影响因素的权重。以三福高速公路为例,用Vensim软件模拟高速公路运营期间系统安全的变化情况。结果表明,在该高速公路运营期间,系统安全与车辆安全度呈先上升后下降的趋势、道路安全度呈下降趋势、驾驶员安全度与应急救援能力呈上升趋势。通过与实际数据对比,验证了模型的有效性。
For the sake of further studying the safety system of express, factors influencing it were discussed, including constituent elements of express safety system , driver, vehicle, road, and emergency rescue capability, environment and management. Relationships between the factors were analyzed by using SD method. A causal model and a stock flow model were built. Weights of the factors were determined by using the AHP method . Changes in operation safety of the Sanfu expressway, taken as an example, were simulated by using Vensim. The results show that during operation, both system safety level and vehicle safety level go up at first and then go down, that the road safety level goes down, that both the driver safety level and the emergency rescue capability go up. Effectiveness of the models was verified by comparing simulation results with the actual data.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期39-45,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
福建省自然科学基金资助(2011J01297)
