摘要
利用1961—2012年全国气温数据和梨、桃栽培面积与产量数据,通过相关回归等数理统计方法系统分析了不同季节和全年气温变化与2种果树栽培面积和产量之间的关系。结果表明:1961—2012年中国四季和全年平均气温、最高气温和最低气温变化趋势中,除春季和秋季最低气温表现为线性递减外,其它季节气温整体均呈上升趋势;全年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温每年分别上升0.020、0.038、0.002℃,平均气温、最高气温升高幅度均极显著;1961—2012年中国梨和桃栽培面积、总产量和单产量整体上逐渐升高,呈现不同的变化趋势;相关性分析表明,梨和桃栽培面积、总产量和单产量均与春季、夏季、秋季、冬季和全年平均气温和最高气温呈显著正相关,与最低气温相关性不显著;气温升高对梨和桃生产起正面效应。
Using the data of air temperature and cultivated area,production of pear, peach from 1961 to 2012, the change of air temperature in different seasons and full year related to cultivated area and yield of two fruits were analyzed by correlation and regression analysis and other statistical methods. The results showed that the average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature were rising significantly as a whole in summer,winter and full year from 1961 to 2012. The average temperature and maximum temperature in spring and autumn increased linearly, the minimum temperature in spring and autumn decreased linearly. The average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature of full year increased annually 0. 020, 0. 038, 0. 002~C, respectively. There were extremely significantly different in the increasing amplitude of average temperature, maximum temperature in full year. The cultivated area,total production and yields of pear and peach increased gradually as a whole from 1961 to 2012,which presented different change trends. Correlation analysis indicated that the cultivated area, total production and yields of pear and peach were significantly and positively correlated with the average temperature and maximum temperature in spring,summer,autumn, winter and full year. The cultivated area, total production and yields of pear and peach were not remarkable relevance with minimum temperature in spring, summer, autumn, winter and full year. The rising of air temperature had positive effect on the production of pear and peach.
出处
《北方园艺》
CAS
北大核心
2015年第8期19-23,共5页
Northern Horticulture
基金
科技基础性工作专项子课题资助项目(2012FY110100-4)
关键词
气温变化
梨
桃
栽培面积
产量
air temperature change
pear
peach,cultivated area
production
