摘要
针对江苏省近年来粮食产量波动的现状，采用灰色关联模型对2000-2009年江苏省粮食产量进行分析。结果发现，播种面积、化肥施用量、年均气温、年均降水以及农药施用量等5个因素是粮食产量波动的主导因素。然后在灰关联分析的基础上建立多元线性回归方程对2010-2012年江苏省粮食产量进行预测与验证，结果表明预测效果良好。最后，针对现状提出了相关建议。
According to the situation of grain yield fluctuation in Jiangsu province in recent years,gray relational model analysis was used in the grain yield of Jiangsu province from 2000-2009. The results show that the area of seed sown, amount of chemical fertilizer,annual temperature,annual precipitation and amount of pesticide are the primary factors of grain yield fluctuation. Then multivariate linear regression equation was established on the basis of gray relational analysis to predict and verify on the grain yield in Jiangsu province from 2010-2012,and the result indicated that the predictive effect was excellent. Finally,some relevant suggestions are proposed on the basis of these problems.
出处
《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期105-109,共5页
Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
江苏省国土资源厅科技计划项目(201110)
关键词
灰色关联分析
多元线性回归
粮食产量预测
江苏省
gray relational analysis
multivariate linear regression
prediction on grain yield
Jiangsu province
