摘要
结合实际工程中非等距非平稳时间序列数据,将隧道围岩位移分解为趋势项位移及平稳随机项位移,应用时间序列分析方法建立隧道围岩位移预测模型。采用3次样条函数插值法对非等距时序进行数据处理,在此基础上分别采用GM(1,1)灰色模型和自回归模型对趋势项位移和平稳随机项位移进行提取及预测,将计算得到的各项位移预测值叠加得到总位移预测值。以华蓥山隧道为例,分析对比实测与预测位移–时间曲线之间的关系。计算结果显示此模型能较好地体现拱顶下沉位移的发展变化趋势,说明所建非等距非平稳时间序列分解模型效果较好,在实际隧道工程的围岩位移预测中是有效、可行的。
Based on the non-equidistant and non-stationary time series data in practical engineering,total displacement can be divided into trend term displacement and stochastic term displacement. The displacement prediction model of tunnel wall rock can be established by time series analysis. Cubic-spline interpolation method is used to process the non-equidistant time series data. On this basis,GM（1,1） grey model is used to forecast the trend term displacement,and autoregressive model is used to forecast the stochastic term displacement. Total displacement is obtained by adding the calculated predictive displacement value of each term. Taking Huayingshan tunnel for example,it is shown that the result could better reflect the development trend of vault crown settlement displacement value based on the comparative analysis of measured and predicted displacement-time curves. Results demonstrate that the established non-equidistant and non-stationary time series decomposition model is feasible and effective in the wall rock displacement prediction of practical tunnel engineering.
出处
《岩石力学与工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第A02期4096-4101,共6页
Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering
关键词
隧道工程
位移预测
时间序列
非等距
三次样条插值法
tunnelling engineering
displacement prediction
time series
non-equidistant
cubic-spline interpolation
