摘要
目的 分析中国大陆地区丙型病毒性肝炎（丙肝）病毒（HCV）发病人群分布特点、时空聚集性及变化趋势,为预防和控制HCV提供科学决策依据。方法 HCV发病病例来自中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集的2008-2013年的数据。空间扫描单位为全国2886个区（县）,时间扫描单位为月,时间跨度从2008年1月至2013年12月。应用时空Kulldorff扫描统计量,用SaTScanTM9.1软件完成分析;地图绘制和结果可视化展示由ArcGIS 10.1软件实现。结果 描述分析显示,HCV发病有随时间上升趋势和季节趋势,每年3月为报告发病高峰;HCV发病病例多发生在≥30岁人群,构成比占到60%以上;男性明显多于女性,男女发病率比1.16-1.35;发病多以农民为主,占全部发病人群的近40%。SaTScan分析显示,HCV发病有时空聚集性,从时间维度看,聚集时间依聚集区类别不同,全年有聚集现象;从空间维度看,HCV发病多聚集在我国中部地区、西北地区、东北地区以及华南地区。从变化趋势分析,1类聚集区域始终位于中部地区,只在2011年扩大为中部地区和西部地区。2类聚集区亦比较稳定,位于我国西北部地区。3类聚集区总处于我国东北地区,但2013年范围有所缩小。4、5类聚集区位于华南地区,且范围有逐年扩大的趋势。结论 中国大陆地区HCV发病有随时间上升趋势,每年3月为报告发病高峰;进一步时空分析发现HCV发病有明显的时间和空间聚集性;本研究结果可为卫生行政部门预防丙肝发病、引导卫生资源合理储备和分配以及制定HCV发病的防控策略提供科学证据。
Objective To understand the population distribution,temporal and spatial clustering,of viral hepatitis C cases and its changing trend in the mainland of China and provide evidence for the prevention and control of hepatitis C.Methods The incidence data of hepatitis C were collected from national diseases reporting information system of China CDC between 2008 and 2013. Spatial scanning unit was 2886 districts /counties in the mainland of China; temporal scanning unit was month,and the time span was from January 2008 to December 2013. Kulldorff scan statistics was applied,and analyses were conducted by using software SaTScanTM9. 1. Map making and result visualizing were carried out with software ArcGIS 10. 1. Results The scan analysis indicated that the incidence of hepatitis C increased over time and had its seasonality. The incidence peak was in March of a year. The surveillance for hepatitis C from 2008 to 2013 indicated that most cases（ 〉60%） occurred in age group 30- 59 years,more cases were in males than in females（1. 16- 1. 35） and the cases in farmers accounted for about 60%. The results from SaTScan indicated the existence of the temporal and spatial clustering of hepatitis C cases. The temporal clustering of hepatitis C cases was mainly from June to October during a year; the spatial clustering occurred in central,northwestern,northeastern and southern regions. With respect to the changes of temporal and spatial clustering,class 1 clustering area was usually in central China,it expended to the western China only in 2011. Class 2 clustering area was in northwestern China except 2012. Class 3 clustering area was in northeastern China,but it became smaller in 2013. Class 4 and 5 clustering areas were in southern China and becamelarger over time. Conclusion Temporal and spatial clustering of hepatitis C cases in China was reported in this paper,but the clustering areas changed with year. Findings from this paper can be used in evidence-based decision making for the prevention and control of hepatitis C and in preparation and allocation of related health resources.
出处
《疾病监测》
CAS
2014年第8期608-614,共7页
Disease Surveillance
基金
淮河流域癌症综合防治(No.1310800003)~~
