摘要
针对风电场建设单位在风电场建设风险评价中偏好使用传统工具且评价效果受主观偏好、信息不全面影响的现状,结合层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)、模糊综合评判(fuzzy synthetic evaluation,FSE)构建了基于三角模糊数的模糊层次风险评价模型。为提高风险评价的准确性,利用FSE扩大信息量、使用两两比较判断矩阵计算风险因素排序权重,并采用三角模糊数刻画人类思维的模糊性。实例应用的结果证明,该模型层次分明、操作简单的特点使其在风电场建设的风险评价实践中具有可行性。
Aiming at the current condition, which most of wind farm investors prefer using traditional tools for risk evaluation, and the evaluation results are usually affected by subjective preferences and incomplete information, this paper integrated AHP （ analytic hierarchy process） and FSE （ fuzzy synthetic evaluation） to establish the F-AHP model of risk evaluation based on triangular fuzzy number. To improve the accuracy of risk evaluation, this paper used FSE to enlarge the volume of information, utilized pairwise comparison judgment matrix to calculate the rank weights of risk indexes, and also used triangular fuzzy number to describe the fuzzy nature of human thinking. Application result shows that the model is feasible in the practice of construction risk evaluation for wind farm because of its clear structure and simple opration.
出处
《电力建设》
2014年第9期103-108,共6页
Electric Power Construction
关键词
风电场
层次分析法(AHP)
三角模糊数
风险评价
wind farm
analytic hierarchy process（AHP）
triangular fuzzy number
risk evaluation
