摘要
本文将水资源稀缺性感知划分为水量短缺认知、水位下降认知、风险认知、机井使用感受和灌溉感受五个维度,利用华北井灌区1168户农户户主的调查数据,运用边际结构模型(MSM)逆向概率加权(IPW)估计方法剔除气候、资源禀赋等伪关联因素的影响,实证分析了水资源稀缺性感知对农户地下水资源利用效率的影响机制。结果发现:稀缺性感知影响地下水利用效率既有直接影响也有间接影响,其中间接影响发挥作用更大。直接影响是通过水量短缺认知和水位下降认知来实现的,即认知水平越高,地下水利用效率越高。稀缺性感知通过影响超采行为、节水技术采用行为和水利设施维护等投入行为决策间接作用于地下水利用效率,且风险认知、灌溉感受和行为决策间存在交互效应。风险认知水平高导致超采行为频发,降低地下水利用效率;灌溉感受越差的农户水利设施维护动力越强烈,从而提高地下水利用效率;节水技术采用行为有利于实现地下水的高效利用。
This study classified water scarcity perception into five dimensions: water quantity shortage recognition, water table decline recognition, risk recognition, well usage experience, and irrigation experience. Then, we characterized the water scarcity perception’s effect path on groundwater use efficiency(GWUE) through theoretical and empirical approach by the application of marginal structure model(MSM) reverse weighted probability(IPW) estimation which erased the influence of pseudo-correlation factors such as climate and resource endowment based on 1168farmers’ survey data Well-irrigated District in North China. The results demonstrated that: the average score of farmers’ groundwater use efficiency was 0.743. There is still a large space for improvement in the utilization of groundwater resources. Water scarcity perception would have a direct and or indirect effect on GWUE, while indirect effect plays a more important role than direct effect. Direct effect on GWUE was identified positively through two factors: water quantity shortage recognition and water table decline recognition, that is, the higher level of water quantity shortage recognition and water table decline recognition, the higher GWUE. Indirect effects of water scarcity perception on GWUE are observed through farmers’ behavior such as groundwater over-exploitation, water-saving behavior, and water conservancy facilities maintenance. There are interactive effects among risk cognition, irrigation experience, and behavior decision. High level of risk cognition leads to frequent groundwater over-exploitation behavior, which reduces GWUE.Farmers with worse experience in using irrigation systems would have a stronger willingness to maintain water conservancy facilities, so as to improve GWUE. Farmers’ water-saving behavior is beneficial to increase GWUE. In addition, the level of farmers’ education has a significant positive effect on the groundwater usage efficiency. If the levels of education are improved in one degree,the utilization efficiency of groundwater increases by 0.026 units.
作者
王昕
陆迁
WANG Xin;LU Qian(Department of Economics,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134,China;College of Economics and Management,Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University,Yangling 712100,China)
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期87-97,共11页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71503181)
