摘要
文章分析了江苏省2002-2015年能源消费碳排放量排放现状及变化特征;运用对数平均指数分解(LMDI)法,将江苏省2002-2015年规模以上工业企业能源消费二氧化碳排放变动分解为碳排放强度、能源结构、能源强度、工业发展水平、行业规模5个影响因素,为进一步研究技术进步对碳排放变动的影响,拓展Kaya等式,考察能源技术强度和新经济发展水平对碳排放变动的影响。研究结果表明,能源强度和能源技术强度对碳排放抑制作用显著,能源技术强度抑制作用更明显;工业发展和经济发展是碳排放量增长的主要因素,其中新经济发展引起的碳排放量增长大于技术对碳排放的抑制;工业行业规模是碳排放量增长的次要因素;能源消费结构变化对碳排放量变化作用有限。最后提出了江苏省碳减排对策建议。
This paper analyzes the current situation and changes of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Jiangsu Province in 2002-2015. By using the logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI) decomposition model, this paper studies 5 driving factors of the changes of carbon dioxide emissions of above-scale industrial enterprises of Jiangsu Province in 2002-2015,including carbon emission intensity, energy structure, energy intensity, industry development and industry scale. In order to study the influence of technological progress on carbon emission changes, the Kaya equation was extended to investigate the influence of energy technology intensity and new economic development on carbon emission changes. The results show that the energy intensity and energy-technique intensity obviously decrease the carbon emissions, especially the energy-technique intensity. Industrial development and innovative economic development is two major factors for the increase of carbon emissions, and carbon emissions caused by the development of innovative economy growth rather than technology would decrease carbon emissions. Industrial scale is the secondary contributor of carbon emissions growth, and energy consumption structure plays little role in carbon emissions change. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for reducing carbon emission in Jiangsu.
作者
韩钰铃
刘益平
HAN Yuling;LIU Yiping(College of Management,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210003,China;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China)
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第12期278-284,共7页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
南京邮电大学人文社会科学研究基金项目(NYS217021)
关键词
碳排放
LMDI
气候变化
影响因素
carbon emissions
LMDI
climate change
influencing factors
