摘要
目的建立基于人口数的中远期用血量预测和血站面积规划方法,为保障临床用血需要,并为血站的建设发展规划提供决策依据。方法以南海区为样本,通过回归分析等方法建立了中远期用血量预测和血站面积规划方法。结果第一,相关分析得出:1)出院人次和用血量之间存在线性关系,相关系数R2为0.8106。手术人次数和用血量之间也存在相关关系,R2为0.6735。宜选择相关系数较高的出院人次和用血量之间的线性关系预测用血量。2)出院人数和人口数之间比例呈稳定上升趋势。拟通过7年内最高的住院率7.961%测算出院人数。3)采血量和用血量关系分析之间比例关系较稳定,基本稳定在1.1左右水平。第二,建立了通过人口预测-出院人数预测-用血量预测-采血量预测-血站业务面积用房预测的一整套方法。结论该方法具有一定的推广性和实用性。
Objective This article aims to establish a population-based mid/long term prediction model for blood consumption and apply the data for blood bank scale planning. The two-phase system is designed to assure clinical blood needs,providing decision-making reference for blood bank construction planning. Methods Nanhai district was assigned for the trail. Expert consultation,simulation,regression analysis were adopted to construct the model. Results 1) The correlation analysis suggests:( 1) Correlation coefficients can be identified for the number of people discharged from hospitals and the volume of blood consumption( 0. 810 6) as well as the number of surgery patients and the volume of blood consumption( 0. 673 5).( 2) Both the proportion and the population number of the patient discharged from hospitals presented a steady upward trend. The highest hospitalization rate of the past 7 years,7. 961%,was used to predict the number of patients discharged.( 3) the relationship between blood consumption and blood collection is relatively stable,at 1. 1 ratio. 2) Established a model including population prediction-discharge prediction-blood consumption prediction-blood collection prediction,instructing blood bank scale planning. Conclusion This approach presented certain practicality and could be promote to wider applications.
作者
杨图深
罗力
陈锦艳
王长金
周奕男
YANG Tushen;LUO Li;CHEN Jinyan;WANG Zhangjin;ZHOU Yinan(Nanhai Blood Station of Foshan Blood Center,Foshan 528200,China;Hehai University;Guangzhou Blood Center)
出处
《中国输血杂志》
CAS
2018年第10期1199-1202,共4页
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion
关键词
用血量
预测
血站面积规划
方法学
blood consumption
prediction
blood bank areas planning
methodology
