摘要
目的 :阐明简单与可逆复合型催化模型的模式 ,参数化及其应用 .这种模型的目标是检测和描述某些疾病和感染率的潜在混合过程的行为 .方法 :将经典的简单型催化模型与可逆型催化模型结合起来重构简单与可逆复合型催化模型 ,描述在社区中人工接种后麻疹的阳性率 ;并用剩余法估计参数 .结果 :重构的模型比原有的模型更好地拟合了流行病学数据 ,反映了疾病流行的真实过程 .结论 :重建的模型在流行病学研究与疾病监测中有参考作用 .
Aim To illustrate the formulation, parameterization and application of a compound catalytic model with both simple and reversible types, which aims to detect and describe the action of likely mixed processes underlying the observed age prevalence infection patterns of certain diseases and interventions. Methods: In this paper, by combining both the simple and reversible catalytic models a compound model is reconstructed to describe the measles age seropositive rates in a community following vaccination. In particular, it is pointed out that there is need to mathematically differentiate the serpositive into those who acquire infection naturally and those who acquire infection as a result of vaccination, because it is only the latter who lose infection to revert to susceptibility again. Results: The reconstructed model here could fit the data more reasonably than that derived by Zhang Yangxi early. Conclusions: The refined model is useful for analyzing the complicated problems in epidemiology and for the surveillance of diseases.
出处
《中南民族学院学报（自然科学版）》
2001年第2期54-59,共6页
Journal of South-Central University for Nationalities(Natural Sciences)
