摘要
选取1978-2012年城镇化水平、第三产业产值比重和就业比重的相关时间序列数据,运用ADF检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果分析、VAR模型以及脉冲响应分析和方差分解,探究我国城镇化与第三产业之间的关系。结果发现:我国城镇化水平与第三产业产值比重、就业比重之间存在着长期均衡关系;第三产业就业比重的变化是城镇化的格兰杰原因,且因果关系是单向的;无论是在长期还是短期,第三产业产值比重对城镇化水平的提高、城镇化水平对第三产业就业比重的增长都呈现出较强的、持续性的推动作用;第三产业产值比重对城镇化水平波动的贡献率较大。
This study, based on the urbanization level from 1978 to 2012 and the time-series data of the output value proportion and the employment proportion of the third industry, explored the relationships between urbanization and the third industry in China by adopting ADF test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality analysis, VAR model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition. The results show that there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between China urbanization level and the output value proportion and the employ- ment proportion of the third industry ; that the changes in the third industry employment proportion is a Granger cause of the urbanization and the causal relationship is unidirectional; that the output value proportion, no matter in the long term or in the short term, has a strong and persistent pushing effect on improving the urbanization level and the employment proportion in the third industry; and that the output value proportion of the third industry has a higher contribution rate to the urbanization level fluctuations.
出处
《山东财政学院学报》
2014年第3期57-66,共10页
Journal of Shandong Finance Institute
基金
国家社科基金项目"技术进步影响就业的理论与实证及扩大我国劳动就业的对策研究"(11BJY035)
教育部人文社科规划基金项目"技术进步的就业效应与扩大我国劳动就业的对策研究"(09YJA790121)
山东省社科规划研究项目"城镇劳动就业的影响因素及其效应研究--基于山东省的分析"(13CJJJ06)
关键词
城镇化
第三产业
就业
urbanization
the third industry
employment
