摘要
边境地区农村人口流出根源在于地区发展的相对落后。新经济迁移理论等认为影响人口流动决策的因素有个人因素和家庭因素,迁移流动可以改善个人和家庭的社会经济状况。但是人口流出给边境地区农村的可持续发展带来不利影响。本文利用黑龙江省三个边境县人口流出的调查,分析流出人口的个人特征和家庭特征,通过建立Logistic回归模型分析影响人口流出的因素。结果表明,年龄、有无外出经历、婚姻、受教育水平、家庭人口规模和户籍等对人口流出有显著影响。应提高边境地区农村公共服务能力、完善社会福利与保障体系,推动边境地区经济社会发展,缓解边境人口流出的问题,维护边境地区人口和社会稳定。
The outflow of rural population in border area lies in the relatively backward development of the prefecture. According to the New Economics of Migration, personal and household factors affect the deci- sion to migrate in that migration can better the social-economic situation of both individual and family. On the flip side, population outflow brings about unfavorable effect on the sustainable development of rural pre- feeture. In this paper, the author taking the survey of the population outflow of three border counties in Hei- longjiang Province, analyzes the personal and household characteristics of floating people, and analyzes the factors affecting the population outflow through modeling Logistic regression. It shows that age, experience of going out, marriage, educational standard, household scale and household registration have significant ef- fect on population outflow. In view of foregoing unfavorable effects, several measures should be taken to solve the problem： improving the public service ability of rural prefectures, perfecting the social welfare and security system, propelling the economic-social development of border area, solving the problem of popula- tion outflow and maintaining the population and society stability in border area.
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第3期52-62,共11页
Population Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目:21世纪我国人口变动趋势与社会结构变动关系研究(09&ZD022)
国家人口计生委项目:陆地边境地区人口流动及其影响因素分析
