摘要
为了提高西安进近空中交通流量预测的准确性,在综合干预分析模型和计量经济法各自优点的基础上,再以预测误差平方和最小为目标,将预测值的加权问题转化为优化问题,求解得到各种方法预测值的权值,然后,将两种方法所得的预测结果用最优加权法进行组合,得到组合预测值。利用西安进近空域实测流量数据进行的对比实验结果表明,组合预测模型的平均拟合误差为3.61%,组合方法总体上具有较高的预测精度和稳定性,即整体上优于干预分析预测模型,也优于计量经济预测模型。
To improve the accuracy of approach control′s flow forecasting, a combination method is presented.The combination method is based on the intervention analysis method and the econometric model, with the aim of the latest squared prediction error.The weighting in the prediction value is turned into an op-timization problem,then obtaining the predicted weights of each method and getting a predictive value of the combined.The combination method is used to fit the annual approach control′s flow from Xi′an airspace flow data.The average error is 3.61%.The result shows that the combination method accurately fits the ac-tual data,and is better than a single prediction model.The combination method provides a new way to fore-cast approach control′s flow.
出处
《常州工学院学报》
2014年第1期39-42,共4页
Journal of Changzhou Institute of Technology
关键词
空中交通管理
空中交通流量
组合预测
干预分析法
计量经济法
air traffic control
air traffic flow
combination forecasting
intervention analysis method
econometric model
