摘要
在分析我国石油储备现状的基础上,以社会福利最大化为目标,通过建立静态局部均衡模型,并结合我国石油储备实际数据对模型进行参数估计和数值模拟计算,以求得我国最优的战略石油安全储备规模。结果表明:在目前我国石油进口需求价格弹性较小的情况下,应对十年一遇的石油进口中断危机最优的战略石油安全储备规模为80天进口量,而面对规模更大的石油进口危机则需要更多的石油安全储备量。
With the increase of Chinese petroleum consumption and its dependence on foreign import, the situation of petroleum security in China has become increasingly serious. The purpose of this paper is to find the optimal scale of Chinese petroleum security in order to ensure the normal supply of domestic petroleum. Firstly,the paper analyzes the current situation of Chinese petroleum reserve from the necessity of strategic petroleum reserve and the construction of reserve bases. Then, for the purpose of maximizing the social welfare, the paper builds a static partial equilibrium model and estimates and numerically simulates the parameters of the model in combination with the ac tual data of petroleum reserve in China. The results show that the optimal scale of the strategic petroleum reserve is China＇s petroleum import amount of 80 days to response the interruption crisis, but more petroleum security reserve is needed to face bigger petroleum import crisis.
出处
《安全与环境工程》
CAS
北大核心
2014年第2期130-134,共5页
Safety and Environmental Engineering
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(11JZD049)
关键词
石油
安全储备
最优储备规模
静态局部均衡模型
petroleum
security reserve
optimal reserve scale
static partial equilibrium model
