摘要
黄金一直以来被视为对冲通货膨胀的重要工具,两者之间存在着密切联系,通过观察2003年7月至2013年6月的数据发现,黄金价格和通货膨胀走势大体相同,并对黄金价格和通货膨胀的相关性做了实证分析。分析结果表明,CPI和黄金价格之间存在着长期均衡关系,并且两者互为因果、相互引导;在短期内,二者之间的长期均衡关系对黄金价格的调整具有负向引导作用,而对CPI的变动具有正向调整作用。
Gold has always been regarded as an important tool to hedge against inflation ,there is a close rela-tionship between them .By observing ten years of data from 2003 to 2013 ,we found that the gold and inflation trend roughly the same .Based on the method of cointegration test and error correction model ,we made the empirical anal-ysis to verify the relationship of the price of gold and CPI .The analysis results show that there is long -term equilib-rium relationship between the price of gold and CPI ,and by Granger causality test ,the two are reciprocal causation , mutual guide at the 5%level of significance .On the short term ,the long-term equilibrium relationship between the two has negative guidance when adjusting the gold price ,and on the changes of CPI has a positive regulation .
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期64-67,共4页
On Economic Problems
基金
国家社科基金项目(10BJY087
11AJY009)
北京市属高等学校创新团队建设与教师职业发展计划项目(IDHT20130505)
北京市哲学社会科学首都流通业研究基地资助成果
