摘要
通过灰色GM(1,1)模型对中国"十二五"期间货物周转总量进行预测,并通过Markov转移概率矩阵对"十二五"期间运输结构进行预测,进一步预测"十二五"期间铁路货物周转量。预测结果表明,到2015年,中国铁路货物周转总量将为38 101.20亿tkm,铁路运输所占比重为15.45%。
In this paper, using GM （1,1）, we forecast the total volume of freight turnover of China in the ＂twelve-five＂ period and then predicted the transportation structure of the ＂twelve-five＂ period using the Markov transition probability matrix which was then used as the basis for the prediction of the railway freight transportation turnover of the same period. At the end, we forecast the total volume of freight turnover of the year 2015 as well as the percentage of railway transportation.
出处
《物流技术》
北大核心
2013年第12期250-252,共3页
Logistics Technology
基金
江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2012SJB630062)阶段成果
