摘要
为了开展客观定量的暴雨洪涝灾害评估,探讨了基于暴雨洪涝淹没模型的暴雨洪涝灾害损失评估业务流程,其核心环节有两部分:估算因降水造成的淹没范围和建立适用的经济损失评估模型。其中暴雨洪涝淹没模型以最大坡降算法和曼宁公式计算暴雨洪涝汇流过程,通过给定汇流时间得到研究区域的淹没面积和水深;经济损失评估模型由直接经济损失和间接经济损失构成,直接经济损失由淹没范围内各类财产的价值乘以其相应的损失率得到。以武汉市江夏区2010年7月一次暴雨洪涝灾害过程为例给出了整个评估流程的实现过程,结果表明基于暴雨洪涝淹没模型的洪涝灾害损失评估业务流程物理意义清楚,表达了暴雨—径流—洪涝灾害全过程,可用以提高洪涝灾害影响评估的定量化程度,同时也为暴雨洪涝风险管理提供一定的依据。
To evaluate rainstorm and flood disaster objectively and quantitatively, in this study we discuss the operational procedure for rain-storm and flood disaster loss evaluation based on rainstorm and flood inundation model. The core components include estimating the inundat-ed area caused by rainstorm and establishing a suitable economic loss evaluation model. Of them, the rainstorm and flood inundation model is used to calculate the rainstorm and flood confluent process based on Deterministic Eight-node and Manning formula, and obtain the inundat-ed area and depth of research area by giving confluent time. The economic loss evaluation model is comprised of direct and indirect economic losses, and the direct economic loss is calculated by the cost of various types of property within the inundated area by the corresponding loss rate. Using the case of a rainstorm and flood disaster event of Wuhan Jiangxia in July 2010 as an example, in the paper we demonstrated the whole evaluation procedure. The results show that the operational procedure of the rainstorm and flood disaster loss evaluation based on the rainstorm and flood inundation model has a clear physical basis, which represents the whole process of rainstorm-runoff-flood disaster. Be-ing applied to day-to-day operation of disaster impact evaluation, it can improve the degree of its quantification, and offer a reference for rain-storm and flood risk management.
出处
《暴雨灾害》
2013年第4期379-384,共6页
Torrential Rain and Disasters
基金
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目"暴雨洪涝淹没模型的算法改进和性能优化"(CMAGJ2013Z11)
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害的变化规律和机理及其影响与对策"(2013CB430206)
关键词
淹没模型
致灾雨量
损失评估
风险管理
inundation model
disaster-causing rainfall
loss evaluation
risk management
