摘要
本文利用非线性动力学模型研究了断层带的地震活动特性.断层系由多个耦合非线性单元模拟,每个基本单元由Maxwell体和刚性滑块组成.滑块的运动满足静、动摩擦强度本构关系.理论模拟的地震活动在短时间内是随机的,但当时间尺度足够大时,断层带的总体活动表现出某种规律性.多数实际观测到的地震活动现象均在这些非线性动力学模型中出现. 本文提出转换概率的观点来度量断层间和孕震区间的地震转移.模拟中发现活动地震带中存在条件安全区,这可能对地震预报的实践有重要的意义.
Nonlinear dynamic models have been used to study the characteristic seismicity of fault zones in this paper. Each segment of faults modeled by a basic nonlinear element, consists of an Maxwell model in series with a rigid sliding block, the constitutive relation of dynamic and static frictional strengths is assigned to the sliding block. In the modeling, the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes appears random in a short time scale, but in a time long enough, the overall behavior of the system show sort of regularities. Most actually observed precursors also appear in these nonlinear dynamic models.The concept of transition probability have been proposed to calibrate the transfer among the faults and segments. The model predicts that there are conditional safe islands in seismic activity zone 'may be of practical importance in earthquake forecasting.
出处
《地球物理学报》
SCIE
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第1期20-31,共12页
Chinese Journal of Geophysics
基金
地震科学联合基金
关键词
地震
活动性
非线性
动力学
模型
Nonlinear dynamic model, Seismicity, Numerical simulation.
