摘要
本文采用山西省1986年-2009年间的GDP数据与3类工业废弃物排放量(工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、工业固体废弃物排放量)数据,基于VAR(向量自回归)模型,通过变量平稳性检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析方法,研究了山西省GDP与工业废弃物之间的关系。结果显示:随着山西省GDP的增加,工业固体废弃物排放量有所增加,GDP对工业固体废弃物排放量有较大影响;GDP增加的同时可以实现工业废水排放量的减少,这与山西省废水资源化再利用有很大关系;GDP的增加对废气排放增加的影响不大。说明山西省通过采取措施可以在GDP增长的同时,降低废弃物排放。建议加强对工业固体废弃物资源化利用,并进一步加强对废气及废水排放的限制及治理。
Based on the vector autoregressive method, this study investigated the relationship between economic growth and industrial waste discharge using the variable stationary and co-integration test, granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis in Shanxi Province from 1986 to 2009. The results showed that when the discharge of Industrial Waste Gas （IWG） and Industrial Waste Water （IWW） decreased by 1%, GDP increases by 0.196% and 0.682% respectively. When the discharge of ISW increased by 1% , GDP would increase by 1.376% . In Shanxi, the increase in the discharge of IWG and IWW decreased GDP, while an increase in the discharge of Industrial Solid Waste（ISW）increases GDP. The positive impulse of IWG and IWW could decrease GDP, and the impulse of ISW could increase GDP. The largest contribution of GDP to ISW is 21.46% in the 4th period; the largest contribution of GDP to IWG is 11.28% in the 9th period and the largest contribution of GDP to IWW is 15.42% in the 10th period. The largest contribution of IWG to GDP is 39.334% in the 3rd period; the largest contribution of IWW to GDP is 30.993% in the 7th period; and the largest contribution of ISW to GDP is 23.597% in the 8th period. The above results indicate that an increase in GDP can lead to an increase in ISW,and GDP could have influence on ISW. However,an increase in GDP could lead to a decrease in IWW. An increase in GDP might have no effect on an increase in IWG.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第6期1184-1193,共10页
Resources Science
基金
国家科技支撑计划(编号:2012BAC03B03-2)
山西省地方委托项目:"太原西山生态环境整治"(编号:09M9016AL)
国际合作项目NASA(编号:NN-X-09-AM-55G)
关键词
经济增长
工业废弃物排放
脉冲响应分析
方差分解
山西省
Economic growth
Industrial waste discharge
Impulse response functions
Variance decomposition
Shanxi Province
