摘要
利用1961—2010年景洪逐月平均最高气温、平均最低气温、14:00平均气温、02:00平均气温,采用气候倾向率、累积距平、信噪比等气候统计方法,研究了近50年西双版纳平均最高气温、平均最低气温的变化趋势、气候突变和异常年份等。结果表明:除春季平均最高气温、14:00平均气温略呈下降趋势外,年、季各平均最高气温、平均最低气温、14:00平均气温、02:00平均气温等各项气温指标均呈显著的升高趋势,升幅为0.208～0.544℃/10a,以冬季升幅最大;平均最高气温、平均最低气温在1978年均发生了突变,以突变点划分,前为冷期,后为暖期,突变前以平均最低气温偏低最明显,突变后以平均最低气温偏高最明显,表明20世纪70年代末以来,平均最低气温对气候变暖的响应更强;平均最高气温、平均最低气温异常偏低年主要发生在20世纪60—70年代,异常偏高年主要发生在20世纪80年代后,以2000年以来尤为明显,这与21世纪中国大部分地区气温依然在变暖是一致的。
Based on the data of monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperature,mean temperature at 14:00 and 02:00 in Xishuangbanna from 1961 to 2010,and using climatic statistic methods,the trends of the mean maximum and minimum air temperature,abrupt climate change,and anomalous years are studied.The results show that except spring mean maximum temperature and mean temperature at 14:00,annual and seasonal mean maximum and minimum temperature,mean temperature at 14:00 and 02:00,etc.,all increased,with the increasing rate being 0.208 to 0.544 ℃ per 10 years,the largest increase in winter.Mean maximum and minimum temperature showed an abrupt change in 1978,and in the period before the abrupt change,it was colder and in the period after it was warmer.Before the abrupt change,the mean minimum temperature decreased obviously,but after the abrupt change,the mean minimum temperature was significantly higher.The abnormal low maximum and minimum temperature were normally appeared in the 1960s and 1970s,and abnormally high temperature mainly occurred after the 1980s of the 20th Century,especially since 2000.
出处
《气象科技》
2013年第2期334-338,共5页
Meteorological Science and Technology
