摘要
以渭河流域为例,采用敏感性系数方法和模型模拟方法估算分析气候变化和人类活动对流域径流的影响,探讨变化环境下气候变化和人类活动对流域径流变化影响的贡献.研究结果表明,渭河流域几乎所有水文站控制流域的径流在1990s出现了明显下降趋势.径流对降水量变化比对潜在蒸散量变化敏感,降水和潜在蒸散发引起的气候变化影响在渭河上中游林家村、魏家堡和咸阳站控制流域较小,而在其他站控制流域的影响较大,占径流总量减少的40%以上.人类活动对径流的影响在渭河上中游林家村、魏家堡和咸阳站控制流域,泾河下游张家山站控制流域大于50%.
In this study, impacts of climate changes and human activities on streamflow in the Wei River basin were estimated with a sensitivity-based method and a dynamic water balance model. Contributions of climate effects and human impacts on streamflow were also investigated. It was found that almost all catchments showed a significantly decreasing trend of streamflow in the early 1990s. Streamflow was more sensitive to changes in precipitation than to changes in potential evapotranspiration （PET）. Impacts of climate due to changes of precipitation and PET were weak in Linjiacun, Weijiabao and Xianyang catchments, the impacts were strong in catchments controlled by other hydrological stations, accounting for more than 40% of streamflow reduction. Human impacts on streamflow in Linjiacun, Weijiabao, Xianyang and Zhangjiashan catchments accounted for more than 50% of streamflow reduction.
出处
《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期115-123,共9页
Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279005)
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项资助项目(2009ZX07212-002-003)
关键词
气候变化
人类活动
径流
渭河
climate change
human activities
streamflow
Wei River
