摘要
研究风电发展与经济增长之间的关系对我国风电长远规划和投资战略的制定具有十分重要的意义。基于我国1991—2010年风电年新增装机容量与GDP情况对比数据,利用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)和基于误差修正模型的格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验方法 ,对我国风电发展与经济增长的关系进行了验证和分析。结果表明,风电发展和经济增长之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系;但是,无论在长期还是短期内,两者之间都不存在Granger因果关系。
The interaction between wind power development and eeononlie growth plays an important role for formulating China＇ s long- term wind power planning and investment strategy. So it is significant to research the interaction between them. According to the relevant annual data during the period 1991-2010, the relationship between wind power development and economic growth in China is examined by applying autoregressive distributed lag （ARDL） approach and Granger causality test method based on elTor correction model. The results indicate that a long-run equilibrimn relationship exists between the wind power development and economic＇, growth; the Granger causality, however, does not exist between these variables whether for the long-run or for the short-run.
出处
《中国电力》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期1-4,13,共5页
Electric Power
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(11YJC790295)
上海市教委科研创新重点项目(13ZS121)
上海市内涵建设(085工程)项目"能源经济与服务管理"
关键词
风电发展
经济增长
协整分析
自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)
wind power development
economic growth
cointegration analysis
autoregressive distributed lag model （ARDL）
