摘要
基于12项反映四川省在2006年1月—2011年12月旅游业发展指标数据,利用主成分分析计算期间每月的旅游业发展状况得分,并结合K-均值聚类、图表法研究旅游业发展的宏观变化规律;同时运用均值、标准差、变异系数等方法分析期间旅游指标的微观变化特征。结果表明:①四川省旅游业受2008年"5.12"大地震的影响较大,直到2011年才恢复到震前水平;②四川省的国际旅游业绩受2008年"5.12"突发危机事件消极影响较大;③四川省的国内旅游业绩受2008年"5.12"突发危机事件消极影响较小,恢复较快;④国际旅游对突发危机事件反映比较敏感,而国内旅游受影响较小,其发展带有刚性特点,其原因是国内、国外市场存在"信息不对称"的差异。
Based on 12 data reflect tourism development indicators in the period from January 2006 to December 2011 in Sichuan Province, we use principal component loads to get the scores of tourism development, combined the K-means clustering with chart method to analysis the tourism development from macroscopic view; At the same time we use the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation to analysis Microscopic change rule of the tourism indicators. The results show that： （~）From tourism development score, tourism industry in Sichuan province influenced by the 2008 ＂5.12＂ earthquake is quite huge, until 2011 year to retum to the level of before earthquakes; （~）The international tourism in Sichuan province affected by 2008 ＂5.12＂ sudden crisis events more serious;（~） The domestic tourism in Sichuan Province affected by 2008 ＂5.12＂ sudden crises smaller loss, and recover rapidly; （~）The international tourism influenced by sudden crises reflect a more sensitive, and the domestic tourism is less affected, with rigid characteristics of its development in the domestic tourism, the reason for this difference is the domestic and foreign markets exist ＂information asymmetry＂ phenomenon.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期180-186,共7页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41171121)
关键词
旅游业
大地震
突发危机事件
恢复
四川省
tourism
great earthquake
sudden crisis events
recover
Sichuan Province
