摘要
随着人口老龄化现象加剧,基本养老保险制度使政府面临沉重的财政负担,也引发了学者对基本养老保险最优替代率的深入研究。本文在跨期叠代模型基础上,结合最新、最合理的数据,实证分析出我国社会基本养老保险最优替代率和均衡指标体系。通过研究分析,本文指出养老金替代率、人口增长率与成年人存活至退休期的概率这三个变量在决定社会均衡体系指标的重要作用。此外,本文还指出,社会统筹替代率提高将导致社会统筹养老金账户价值与退休期消费水平提高,但个人账户养老金价值以及工作期消费将下降,并对社会总储蓄起到了挤压作用,导致利率提升,工资降低,消费者总效用下降。而个人账户替代率与社会统筹替代率的作用正好相反,个人账户替代率提高导致消费减少与个人储蓄减少,但是社会总储蓄水平却有所上升。最后,本文研究了人口增长率与存活概率对最优养老金替代率的影响。人口增长率越高,最优社会统筹替代率就越高,个人养老金替代率越低;存活概率越高,最优社会统筹替代率越低,个人养老金替代率越低。
With the population aging phenomenon exacerbated by the basic pension insurance system so that the government is facing a heavy financial burden, but also led to scholars＇ in - depth study of the optimal replace- ment rate of basic pension insurance. Based on the overlapping generations model, combined with the latest, the most reasonable data from the static and dynamic modeling, we performed the empirical analysis of the opti- mal replacement rate of Chinas basic social pension insurance and balanced index system. First of all, we fig- ured out how replacement rates, population growth rate and mortality rate would affect indicators in the social e- quilibrium system. Increasing replacement rate for social pooling pension leads to increase in the value of the social pooling account as well as the decrease in the level of consumption. It also causes the drop in the value of personal accounts pension and savings, which implies the shrinking of total social savings. Consequently, this leads to a higher interest rate and a lower wage. On the contrary, the replacement rate for personal account pen- sion has a different influence. A higher replacement rate for personal account leads to a decrease in both personal consumption and savings but increases the total social savings, which equals to the sum of personal pension and personal savings. In the paper, we also researched into the effect of population growth rate and mortality rate on optimal replacement rates. It is indicated that the higher population growth rate, the higher optimal replacement rate for social pooling pension and the lower optimal replacement rate for personal pension. It is found that lower mortality rate leads to lower replacement rates for both social pooling pension and personal pension.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第1期79-91,共13页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"巨灾风险度量与巨灾保险期权定价研究"(项目编号:71071009)的资助
关键词
跨期叠代模型
社会统筹养老金替代率
个人账户养老金替代率
成年人存活概率
老龄化程度
Overlapping generations model, Replacement rate for social pooling pension, Replacement rate for individual account pension, Mortality rate, Aging degree
