摘要
为了实现加工番茄产量的精准预测,通过采用方差倒数法来确定权重,将一元线性回归模型、灰色预测模型和指数平滑模型加以组合,根据2001—2009年新疆某加工番茄种植及产量数据,建立了加工番茄产量组合预测模型。以预测2010年和2011年番茄产量为例,结果表明此组合预测模型与单一预测模型相比更加准确可靠。该研究为加工番茄产业决策支持系统的建立奠定了理论基础。
This paper use variance reciprocal method to determine the weight,and combine a linear regression model,the grey forecasting model with exponential smoothing model.That purpose is that we can forecast the processing tomato yield accurately.We build a processing tomato production combination forecasting model by the 2001-2009 Xinjiang a processing tomato planting and production data.Take the predicting yield of 2010 and 2011 tomato production for example;we proved that compared with the single forecast model,the combination forecasting model was more accurate and reliable.And it provided the foundation for the establishment of the processing tomato industry decision support systems.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
2013年第3期161-165,共5页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"基于复杂约束环境下新疆番茄产量动态预测方法研究"(61064005)
关键词
决策支持系统
加工番茄产量
组合预测模型
decision support systems
processing tomato yield
combination forecasting model
